Morton vs Raith Rvs Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cappielow Park
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.76
Draw
4.16
Away Win
1.56
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Morton
Raith Rvs
16'
⚽ J. Rowe (K. Turner)
P. Croker 🟨
26'
M. Garrity (C. Ballantyne) ⚽
53'
55'
🟨 K. Turner
67'
⚽ G. Oakley (D. Easton)
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Raith Rvs
Raith Rvs rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Raith Rvs a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Raith Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Raith Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Raith Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Raith Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Raith Rvs have secured two victories and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Morton remain winless at home in that same span with just a solitary draw to show for four defeats. At the home venue, Morton have found the net in three of their last five outings but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Raith Rvs rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Raith Rvs won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 11 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Morton's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Morton's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points, while Raith Rvs's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards Raith Rvs.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Morton losing run
1
Morton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Raith Rvs
Raith Rvs's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Raith Rvs win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Morton win
Latest market chance 16.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.6% → 16.9%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.3% → 23.8%
−0.5 pts
Raith Rvs win
Latest market chance 59.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
58.1% → 59.3%
+1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Morton
Draw
Raith Rvs
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MortonRaith Rvs
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
2nd
8
Games Played
8
0.13
Points/Game
1.75
0.50
Goals/Game
1.38
1.88
Conceded/Game
0.62
7.4
Shots/Game
9.7
2.7
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Morton at home (5 matches) vs Raith Rvs away (5 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
2.00
0.60
Goals/Game
1.20
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.60
0%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Morton
Home form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Raith Rvs
Away form
L
W
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Morton Wins
0
Draws
3
Raith Rvs Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Raith Rvs3 – 2Morton
Morton0 – 0Raith Rvs
Raith Rvs1 – 1Morton
Morton0 – 1Raith Rvs
Raith Rvs1 – 1Morton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mortonvs
Raith Rvs
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.00
Goals conceded / game
0.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
5/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 48.3%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.7%→Latest 46.9%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Morton's 10 matches and 2 of Raith Rvs's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?