Hamilton vs Queen of Sth Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
ZLX Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.28
Draw
5.29
Away Win
8.54
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Hamilton
Queen of Sth
12'
⚽ L. Smith (B. Johnstone)
A. Ryan (C. Blues) ⚽
23'
A. Ryan (S. McKinstry) ⚽
34'
A. Ryan (D. Thomas) ⚽
41'
T. Gallacher (D. Thomas) ⚽
69'
73'
🟨 Z. MacKenzie
C. Blues 🟨
80'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hamilton
Hamilton rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Queen of Sth edge head-to-head, giving Hamilton an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Queen of Sth stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hamilton have secured five victories from their most recent five home outings, while Queen of Sth have managed just a solitary win and one draw across their last five away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in all five of their latest home matches and have kept four clean sheets during that same run. Hamilton rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Queen of Sth rate stronger on head-to-head. Queen of Sth won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 14 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Hamilton's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Hamilton's implied win probability has risen by 7.7 percentage points, while Queen of Sth's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Hamilton.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Queen of Sth losing run
15
Hamilton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Hamilton
Hamilton's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hamilton win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hamilton win
Latest market chance 71.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
63.8% → 71.5%
+7.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
21.6% → 18.3%
−3.3 pts
Queen of Sth win
Latest market chance 10.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
14.6% → 10.3%
−4.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hamilton
Draw
Queen of Sth
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HamiltonQueen of Sth
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
10th
6
Games Played
7
2.67
Points/Game
0.57
2.00
Goals/Game
0.71
0.00
Conceded/Game
2.86
11.3
Shots/Game
8.5
6.0
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Hamilton at home (5 matches) vs Queen of Sth away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
2.40
Goals/Game
0.75
0.40
Conceded/Game
4.75
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hamilton
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Queen of Sth
Away form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hamilton Wins
1
Draws
1
Queen of Sth Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Hamilton1 – 3Queen of Sth
Queen of Sth4 – 1Hamilton
Hamilton1 – 2Queen of Sth
Queen of Sth1 – 4Hamilton
Hamilton0 – 0Queen of Sth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hamiltonvs
Queen of Sth
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.30
Goals conceded / game
2.40
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.3%→Latest 60.8%+6.5 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.6%→Latest 48.9%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Hamilton's 10 matches and 3 of Queen of Sth's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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