Kelty Hearts vs Edinburgh City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Central Park
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.42
Draw
3.28
Away Win
2.67
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Kelty Hearts
Edinburgh City
1'
🟨 J. McGregor
2'
⚽ L. Walker (T. North)
C. Flatman 🟨
14'
25'
⚽ (P) J. Jarvis
41'
⚽ T. North (J. Grigor)
G. Walker 🟨
43'
R. Cole 🟨
46'
48'
🟨 J. Jarvis
R. Cole (I. Murray) ⚽
68'
A. Ferguson 🟨
69'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kelty Hearts edge defence and head-to-head, Edinburgh City edge attack, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Edinburgh City slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Kelty Hearts slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Kelty Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Kelty Hearts have enjoyed an encouraging recent record at home with three wins from their last five outings, while Edinburgh City have managed just a single victory in that same span away from home. The hosts have scored in all five of their most recent matches at this venue, yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical run. Edinburgh City hold a slight advantage in attack, while Kelty Hearts rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while form is closely matched. Kelty Hearts won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 30 March 2024, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Edinburgh City's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Kelty Hearts's implied win probability has fallen by 3.9 percentage points, while Edinburgh City's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Kelty Hearts win as less likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kelty Hearts win
Latest market chance 38.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
42.1% → 38.2%
−3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.6% → 27.0%
+1.4 pts
Edinburgh City win
Latest market chance 34.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
32.3% → 34.8%
+2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kelty Hearts
Draw
Edinburgh City
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Kelty HeartsEdinburgh City
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
5th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.57
1.43
Goals/Game
2.29
2.14
Conceded/Game
2.00
10.4
Shots/Game
12.6
4.8
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Kelty Hearts at home (4 matches) vs Edinburgh City away (5 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
1.60
2.25
Goals/Game
2.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.20
75%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kelty Hearts
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Edinburgh City
Away form
D
L
D
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kelty Hearts Wins
4
Draws
1
Edinburgh City Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.8
Kelty Hearts3 – 1Edinburgh City
Kelty Hearts3 – 2Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City0 – 3Kelty Hearts
Edinburgh City1 – 4Kelty Hearts
Edinburgh City1 – 1Kelty Hearts
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kelty Heartsvs
Edinburgh City
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.4%→Latest 54.3%−4.1 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 58.9%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Kelty Hearts's 10 matches and 3 of Edinburgh City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?