Stranraer vs Dumbarton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stair Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.56
Draw
4.02
Away Win
4.92
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Stranraer
Dumbarton
32'
⚽ S. Honeyman
38'
🟨 D. Craig
S. Mason (A. Quigg) ⚽
55'
L. Dobbie (S. Mason) ⚽
59'
S. Mason 🟨
62'
Z. Bruce (L. Dobbie) ⚽
72'
K. Nair 🟨
90+2'
90+2'
• L. McIntosh (L. McIntosh)
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stranraer
Stranraer rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Dumbarton edge head-to-head, giving Stranraer a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dumbarton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stranraer have secured two victories and a draw in their last five home outings, while Dumbarton have suffered five consecutive defeats away from home during this same recent sample. Stranraer have found the net in three of their last five matches at home and have also kept two clean sheets within that same run. Stranraer rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Dumbarton rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 4 April 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Stranraer a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Dumbarton losing run
0
Dumbarton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Stranraer
Stranraer's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Stranraer win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stranraer win
Latest market chance 59.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
51.6% → 59.6%
+8.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.3% → 22.9%
−2.4 pts
Dumbarton win
Latest market chance 17.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
23.1% → 17.5%
−5.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Stranraer
Draw
Dumbarton
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StranraerDumbarton
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
9th
6
Games Played
6
1.67
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
0.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.83
11.1
Shots/Game
8.4
4.8
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Stranraer at home (5 matches) vs Dumbarton away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.00
1.20
Goals/Game
0.50
0.40
Conceded/Game
2.50
60%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stranraer
Home form
L
D
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dumbarton
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stranraer Wins
1
Draws
3
Dumbarton Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.8
Stranraer1 – 1Dumbarton
Dumbarton2 – 0Stranraer
Stranraer1 – 1Dumbarton
Dumbarton1 – 2Stranraer
Stranraer0 – 0Dumbarton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stranraervs
Dumbarton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
0.60
0.90
Goals conceded / game
2.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 59.3%+4.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 56.6%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
4 of Stranraer's 10 matches and 4 of Dumbarton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?