Falkirk vs Hearts Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Falkirk Stadium
Tue 15 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.92
Draw
3.84
Away Win
1.90
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Falkirk
Hearts
Finley Frank Barbrook 🟨
3'
Ben krauhaus (Ryan Strain) ⚽
8'
22'
⚽ James wilson (Josh Mcpake)
28'
🟨 Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
35'
🟨 Yan Dhanda
Ryan Strain 🟨
55'
Owen Eames 🟨
67'
Owen Eames ⚽
68'
Calvin Fodrey 🟨
75'
77'
🟨 Jamie McCart
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
13
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
4
15
Fouls
13
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Falkirk (4-2-3-1)
S. Bain
R. Strain
L. Neilson
L. Henderson
L. McCann
Finley Frank Barbrook
B. Spencer
E. Ross
B. Krauhaus
Owen Eames
J. Murrell
Hearts (4-2-3-1)
B. Reus
J. Altena
J. McCart
S. Findlay
H. Milne
Y. Dhanda
L. Mendy
C. Miller
Cláudio Braga
J. McPake
J. Wilson
Player Ratings ?
Falkirk
B. KrauhausM7.6
Owen EamesM7.5
L. HendersonD7.5
Hearts
J. WilsonF7.6
J. McPakeM6.7
Y. DhandaM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hearts
Hearts rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hearts a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hearts have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Falkirk have suffered four defeats in that same span at home. Falkirk have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet in that period. Hearts rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Hearts won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 13 May 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Falkirk's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 16-day comparison window, Falkirk's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Hearts's implied win probability has risen by 4.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards Hearts.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Hearts
Hearts's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hearts win as more likely than it did 16 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Falkirk win
Latest market chance 24.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.3% → 24.5%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.6% → 25.5%
−2.1 pts
Hearts win
Latest market chance 50.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
45.1% → 50.0%
+4.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Falkirk
Draw
Hearts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 16 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FalkirkHearts
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
3rd
5
Games Played
5
0.40
Points/Game
2.40
0.60
Goals/Game
2.40
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
10.7
Shots/Game
16.3
2.9
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Falkirk at home (3 matches) vs Hearts away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.50
33%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Falkirk
Home form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hearts
Away form
W
D
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Falkirk Wins
0
Draws
0
Hearts Wins
5
Avg Goals
2.4
Hearts3 – 0Falkirk
Hearts1 – 0Falkirk
Falkirk0 – 2Hearts
Hearts3 – 0Falkirk
Falkirk0 – 3Hearts
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Falkirkvs
Hearts
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
2.10
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.7%→Latest 54.4%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 56.6%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Falkirk's 10 matches and 5 of Hearts's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?