Hearts vs St Mirren Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Tynecastle Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.47
Draw
4.76
Away Win
6.06
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hearts edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hearts arrive at Tynecastle with a perfect record from their last five home outings, securing all five victories without dropping a point. In contrast, St Mirren have managed just three wins and two defeats in their corresponding away sample over the same period. At home, Hearts have scored in every one of their last five matches while also keeping two clean sheets within that same recent run. Hearts rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. St Mirren won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 3 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Hearts's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 21-day comparison window, Hearts's implied win probability has risen by 4.0 percentage points, while St Mirren's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Hearts unbeaten run
59%
St Mirren yellow cards after 75'
15
Hearts points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Hearts
No current absences reported
St Mirren
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Hearts
Hearts's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hearts win as more likely than it did 21 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hearts win
Latest market chance 64.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
60.6% → 64.6%
+4.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.5% → 20.1%
−2.4 pts
St Mirren win
Latest market chance 15.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
16.9% → 15.4%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hearts
Draw
St Mirren
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 21 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HeartsSt Mirren
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
5th
7
Games Played
7
1.86
Points/Game
1.43
2.00
Goals/Game
1.14
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.29
16.3
Shots/Game
14.3
5.3
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Hearts at home (3 matches) vs St Mirren away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
2.00
2.67
Goals/Game
1.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
0.33
100%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hearts
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Mirren
Away form
L
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hearts Wins
3
Draws
1
St Mirren Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
St Mirren1 – 0Hearts
Hearts2 – 0St Mirren
St Mirren2 – 2Hearts
Hearts3 – 1St Mirren
Hearts4 – 0St Mirren
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Heartsvs
St Mirren
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 62.4%+4.3 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 56.7%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Hearts's 10 matches and 3 of St Mirren's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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