Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Head to Head, Prediction
Rugby Park
Wed 02 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.92
Draw
3.53
Away Win
2.43
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Kilmarnock
St Mirren
4'
⚽ Fraser Taylor (Nikolas Agrafiotis)
Greg Kiltie 🟨
38'
42'
🟨 Nikolas Agrafiotis
Bailey Rice 🟨
82'
82'
🟨 Jayden Richardson
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
9
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Goal
1
7
Corner Kicks
3
12
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Kilmarnock (3-4-1-2)
M. Stryjek
C. McCarthy
G. Stanger
J. Yfeko
E. Ring
M. O'Hara
T. Lowery
M. Schjønning-Larsen
G. Kiltie
T. John-Jules
J. Hugill
St Mirren (4-2-3-1)
J. Chapman
C. Ramsay
A. Gogić
Henry Fieldson
D. John
P. Nsio
R. Carr
C. Mochrie
F. Taylor
Ismeal Kabia
N. Agrafiotis
Player Ratings ?
Kilmarnock
G. StangerD6.9
J. YfekoD6.9
C. McCarthyD6.8
St Mirren
F. TaylorM8.2
C. RamsayD7.8
Henry FieldsonD7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kilmarnock edge attack and head-to-head, St Mirren edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Mirren stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Kilmarnock stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Mirren stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Kilmarnock stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Kilmarnock win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. St Mirren remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 33.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
38.3% → 33.2%
−5.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.4% → 27.5%
+0.1 pts
St Mirren win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
34.3% → 39.3%
+5.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kilmarnock
Draw
St Mirren
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
KilmarnockSt Mirren
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
2nd
3
Games Played
3
0.00
Points/Game
2.33
1.33
Goals/Game
2.00
4.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
9.9
Shots/Game
14.3
4.0
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Kilmarnock at home (4 matches) vs St Mirren away (3 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
2.00
0.50
Goals/Game
1.00
2.75
Conceded/Game
0.33
0%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kilmarnock
Home form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Mirren
Away form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kilmarnock Wins
3
Draws
1
St Mirren Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
St Mirren0 – 3Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock4 – 3St Mirren
St Mirren0 – 0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock2 – 0St Mirren
St Mirren5 – 1Kilmarnock
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kilmarnockvs
St Mirren
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.10
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.7%→Latest 54.7%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 58.9%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
7 of Kilmarnock's 10 matches and 7 of St Mirren's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?