Motherwell vs Aberdeen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fir Park
Tue 15 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.83
Draw
3.84
Away Win
4.26
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 4
Match Events ?
Motherwell
Aberdeen
12'
🟨 Lewis Mayo
38'
⚽ Gavin Molloy
Tom Sparrow 🟨
40'
46'
⚽ Connor Patrick Ronan (Kevin Nisbet)
Emmanuel Longelo 🟨
53'
63'
🟨 Afeez Aremu Olalekan
76'
⚽ Ayoub Mouloua (Connor Patrick Ronan)
76'
🟨 Ayoub Mouloua
87'
⚽ Kevin Nisbet (Marius Müller)
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
12
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
2
7
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Motherwell (4-2-2-2)
A. Paulsen
T. Sparrow
J. Girdwood-Reich
M. Moormann
M. Emmanuel
L. Fadinger
J. Hodge
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
A. Lowry
J. Kanga
R. Charles-Cook
Aberdeen (5-3-2)
M. Müller
C. Cadden
L. Mayo
M. Knoester
G. Molloy
N. Guinness-Walker
C. Ronan
A. Aremu
F. Marshall
T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
Player Ratings ?
Motherwell
I. SaidF6.7
L. FadingerM6.6
J. HodgeM6.6
Aberdeen
C. RonanM9.0
K. NisbetF8.4
M. MüllerG7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Motherwell
Motherwell rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Motherwell a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Aberdeen have struggled away from home recently, recording just a single draw and four defeats in their last five outings, whereas Motherwell sit at the opposite end of the scale with one win and two draws from their last five matches at home. Motherwell have found the net in four of their last five home games, yet they have also kept two clean sheets during that same run. Motherwell rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Motherwell won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 15 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Aberdeen's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 16-day comparison window, Motherwell's implied win probability has risen by 8.5 percentage points, while Aberdeen's implied win probability has fallen by 6.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Motherwell a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Aberdeen losing run
1
Aberdeen points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Motherwell
Motherwell's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Motherwell win as more likely than it did 16 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Motherwell win
Latest market chance 51.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
42.8% → 51.3%
+8.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.6% → 25.2%
−2.4 pts
Aberdeen win
Latest market chance 23.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
29.6% → 23.5%
−6.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Motherwell
Draw
Aberdeen
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 16 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MotherwellAberdeen
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
10th
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
0.80
1.60
Goals/Game
0.40
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.40
14.6
Shots/Game
9.9
4.7
Shots on Target
2.6
Home vs Away Context
Motherwell at home (3 matches) vs Aberdeen away (4 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
1.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.25
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
33%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Motherwell
Home form
L
D
L
D
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Aberdeen
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Motherwell Wins
3
Draws
1
Aberdeen Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Motherwell2 – 0Aberdeen
Aberdeen1 – 1Motherwell
Motherwell2 – 0Aberdeen
Aberdeen4 – 1Motherwell
Motherwell2 – 0Aberdeen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Motherwellvs
Aberdeen
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.7%→Latest 55.1%+4.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 56.9%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Motherwell's 10 matches and 5 of Aberdeen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?