Motherwell vs Celtic Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Fir Park
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
4.46
Draw
4.61
Away Win
1.63
Match Prediction
Data favours
Celtic
Celtic rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Celtic an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Celtic arrive with a perfect away record in their last five outings, securing five wins without a single draw or defeat across matches spanning multiple seasons. In stark contrast, Motherwell have managed just one victory from their most recent five home fixtures, having also recorded two draws and two losses during that same span. At home, Motherwell have found the net in three of their last five matches, yet they have only managed to keep a clean sheet twice during that identical sample period. Celtic rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Celtic won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 13 May 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Motherwell's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Motherwell's implied win probability has risen by 4.5 percentage points, while Celtic's implied win probability has fallen by 5.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Celtic.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Celtic unbeaten run
15
Celtic points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Motherwell
No current absences reported
Celtic
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Celtic
Celtic's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Celtic win as less likely than it did 22 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Motherwell win
Latest market chance 19.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
15.3% → 19.8%
+4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
20.5% → 21.8%
+1.3 pts
Celtic win
Latest market chance 58.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
64.2% → 58.4%
−5.8 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
17 snapshots
+6+30−3Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Motherwell
Draw
Celtic
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Motherwell
Celtic
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
1st
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
2.57
1.29
Goals/Game
2.00
1.57
Conceded/Game
0.57
14.6
Shots/Game
20.0
4.7
Shots on Target
8.3
Home vs Away Context
Motherwell at home (3 matches) vs Celtic away (3 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
3.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
33%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Motherwell
Home form
D
L
D
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Celtic
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Motherwell Wins
1
Draws
0
Celtic Wins
4
Avg Goals
4.0
2026-05-132025-2026
Motherwell2 – 3Celtic
2026-03-142025-2026
Celtic3 – 1Motherwell
2025-12-302025-2026
Motherwell2 – 0Celtic
2025-10-052025-2026
Celtic3 – 2Motherwell
2025-02-022024-2025
Motherwell1 – 3Celtic
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Motherwell
vs
Celtic
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
83.9%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
65.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
44.3%
BTTSBoth teams score
62.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 62.0%+5.9 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 22 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Motherwell's 10 matches and 3 of Celtic's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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