Atalanta vs Cagliari Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Balance Arena
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.63
Draw
4.06
Away Win
5.67
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Atalanta
Cagliari
19'
⚽ P. Mendy (M. Adopo)
G. Scamacca (C. De Ketelaere) ⚽
41'
61'
⚽ (P) D. Maldini
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
22
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
2
9
Fouls
8
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Atalanta (4-3-3)
M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova
O. Kossounou
G. Scalvini
S. Kolasinac
L. Samardzic
F. Kessie
Ederson
C. De Ketelaere
G. Scamacca
J. Rowe
Cagliari (4-4-1-1)
E. Caprile
J. Pedro
A. Deiola
J. Rodriguez
A. Obert
M. Adopo
A. Romano
H. Winks
J. Fazzini
D. Maldini
P. Mendy
Player Ratings ?
Atalanta
Franck KessiéM7.7
Gianluca ScamaccaF7.3
Jonathan RoweF7.3
Cagliari
Elia CaprileG8.2
Alessandro DeiolaD7.9
Harry WinksM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cagliari edge recent form, attack and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cagliari stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cagliari slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Cagliari slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cagliari have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Atalanta have also recorded two victories and one draw in their most recent five home outings. Atalanta have found the net in just two of their last five home matches and have kept two clean sheets during that same period. Cagliari rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. Cagliari won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 27 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Atalanta's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Atalanta's implied win probability has fallen by 2.7 percentage points, while Cagliari's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Atalanta
Atalanta's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Atalanta win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 59.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
63.7% → 59.0%
−4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.8% → 24.2%
+1.4 pts
Cagliari win
Latest market chance 16.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
13.6% → 16.8%
+3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atalanta
Draw
Cagliari
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AtalantaCagliari
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
9th
3
Games Played
3
2.00
Points/Game
2.00
1.33
Goals/Game
0.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.33
11.8
Shots/Game
10.8
3.4
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Atalanta at home (3 matches) vs Cagliari away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
3.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.33
67%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atalanta
Home form
L
D
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cagliari
Away form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atalanta Wins
2
Draws
1
Cagliari Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Cagliari3 – 2Atalanta
Atalanta2 – 1Cagliari
Atalanta0 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari0 – 1Atalanta
Cagliari2 – 1Atalanta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atalantavs
Cagliari
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.4%→Latest 50.0%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 45.6%→Latest 49.2%+3.6 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Atalanta's 10 matches and 7 of Cagliari's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?