Atalanta vs Venezia Head to Head, Prediction
New Balance Arena
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.57
Draw
4.11
Away Win
6.03
Match Prediction
Data favours
Atalanta
Atalanta rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Atalanta an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atalanta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Atalanta
Atalanta's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Atalanta win as more likely than it did 25 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 59.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
56.2% → 59.4%
+3.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.0% → 23.4%
−1.6 pts
Venezia win
Latest market chance 17.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
18.7% → 17.2%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atalanta
Draw
Venezia
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 25 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AtalantaVenezia
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
20th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
0.00
1.00
Goals/Game
0.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
2.60
11.8
Shots/Game
14.0
3.4
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Atalanta at home (3 matches) vs Venezia away (2 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atalanta
Home form
D
L
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Venezia
Away form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atalanta Wins
3
Draws
1
Venezia Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Atalanta0 – 0Venezia
Venezia0 – 2Atalanta
Venezia1 – 3Atalanta
Atalanta4 – 0Venezia
Venezia1 – 0Atalanta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atalantavs
Venezia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.40
Goals conceded / game
2.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 60.7%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.5%→Latest 58.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Atalanta's 10 matches and 5 of Venezia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?