Cagliari vs Lecce Head to Head, Prediction
Unipol Domus
Mon 07 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.05
Draw
3.27
Away Win
4.15
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Cagliari
Lecce
Daniel Maldini (Jacopo Fazzini) ⚽
29'
37'
🟨 Kialonda Gaspar
Alessandro Deiola 🟨
90+5'
90+5'
🟨 Jamil Siebert
90+7'
🟨 Wladimiro Falcone
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
20
Total Shots
10
9
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
5
9
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Cagliari (4-3-2-1)
E. Caprile
Zé Pedro
A. Deiola
J. Rodríguez
A. Obert
M. Adopo
A. Romano
H. Winks
D. Maldini
J. Fazzini
P. Mendy
Lecce (4-1-4-1)
W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga
Kialonda Gaspar
Tiago Gabriel
A. Gallo
I. Ilić
S. Pierotti
O. Ngom
L. Coulibaly
Joël Monteiro
N. Štulić
Player Ratings ?
Cagliari
D. MaldiniM8.2
J. FazziniM7.7
J. RodríguezD7.5
Lecce
W. FalconeG8.6
Y. MalehM6.9
Tiago GabrielD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cagliari edge recent form, attack and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cagliari slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cagliari slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Cagliari slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Cagliari
Cagliari's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Cagliari win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cagliari win
Latest market chance 47.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
43.1% → 47.3%
+4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
30.9% → 29.7%
−1.2 pts
Lecce win
Latest market chance 23.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.9% → 23.0%
−2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cagliari
Draw
Lecce
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CagliariLecce
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
14th
2
Games Played
2
1.50
Points/Game
1.50
0.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
10.8
Shots/Game
8.4
4.2
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Cagliari at home (2 matches) vs Lecce away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
0.67
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cagliari
Home form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lecce
Away form
L
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cagliari Wins
2
Draws
1
Lecce Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Cagliari0 – 2Lecce
Lecce1 – 2Cagliari
Cagliari4 – 1Lecce
Lecce1 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari1 – 1Lecce
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cagliarivs
Lecce
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
4/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 9 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 36.3%→Latest 39.8%+3.5 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 43.6%→Latest 45.3%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
8 of Cagliari's 10 matches and 8 of Lecce's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?