Genoa vs Fiorentina Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.25
Draw
3.35
Away Win
2.34
Match Prediction
Data favours
Fiorentina
Fiorentina rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Genoa edge defence, giving Fiorentina an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Fiorentina stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Fiorentina stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Genoa slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Fiorentina stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Fiorentina have secured two victories and a draw from their last five away outings, whereas Genoa remain winless at home with just a solitary draw in that same span. At the Lido, Genoa have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Fiorentina rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Genoa hold a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 23-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison favours Fiorentina.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Genoa losing run
1
Genoa points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Genoa
No current absences reported
Fiorentina
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 23 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Genoa win
Latest market chance 30.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.1% → 30.4%
+0.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.6% → 28.4%
−0.2 pts
Fiorentina win
Latest market chance 41.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
41.4% → 41.1%
−0.3 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
19 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Genoa
Draw
Fiorentina
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Genoa
Fiorentina
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
17th
5
Games Played
5
0.20
Points/Game
0.80
0.60
Goals/Game
1.20
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.40
11.8
Shots/Game
16.8
3.0
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Genoa at home (3 matches) vs Fiorentina away (2 matches)
0.33
Points/Game
1.50
0.67
Goals/Game
2.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
3.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Genoa
Home form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Fiorentina
Away form
D
L
W
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Genoa Wins
0
Draws
3
Fiorentina Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
2026-05-102025-2026
Fiorentina0 – 0Genoa
2025-11-092025-2026
Genoa2 – 2Fiorentina
2025-02-022024-2025
Fiorentina2 – 1Genoa
2024-10-312024-2025
Genoa0 – 1Fiorentina
2024-04-152023-2024
Fiorentina1 – 1Genoa
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Genoa
vs
Fiorentina
Recent Scoring Profile
0.40
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.70
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
6/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
71.7%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
47.4%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
27.2%
BTTSBoth teams score
53.1%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 47.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 23 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 53.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 23 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Genoa's 10 matches and 5 of Fiorentina's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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