Genoa vs Frosinone Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.20
Draw
3.38
Away Win
3.54
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Genoa
Frosinone
14'
⚽ G. Kvernadze (R. Schmid)
16'
🟨 Giorgio Cittadini
Lorenzo Colombo •
45+1'
Kingsley Ehizibue 🟨
48'
J. Vasquez (D. Sow) ⚽
50'
61'
🟨 Gabriele Bracaglia
Johan Vásquez 🟨
66'
Johan Vásquez 🟨
86'
Johan Vásquez 🟥
86'
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
17
Total Shots
27
5
Shots on Goal
6
8
Corner Kicks
9
12
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Genoa (3-5-2)
J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
L. Ostigard
J. Vasquez
K. Ehizibue
M. Frendrup
T. Baldanzi
D. Sow
M. E. Ellertsson
L. Colombo
M. Osmajic
Frosinone (4-2-3-1)
L. Palmisani
A. Oyono
G. Calvani
G. Cittadini
G. Bracaglia
G. Calo
P. Masini
F. Ghedjemis
R. Schmid
G. Kvernadze
A. Raimondo
Player Ratings ?
Genoa
Justin BijlowG7.6
Johan VásquezD7.5
Leo ØstigårdD7.2
Frosinone
Giorgi KvernadzeM8.0
Ilario MonterisiD7.2
Gabriele CalvaniD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Frosinone
Frosinone rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Frosinone an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Frosinone stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Frosinone stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Frosinone stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Frosinone stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Frosinone arrive with a solid away record, having secured two wins and three draws from their last five outings on the road, while Genoa have struggled at home with just one win and four defeats in their recent five matches. At home, Genoa have found the net in three of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same span. Frosinone rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 30 March 2024, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Genoa's implied win probability has fallen by 5.9 percentage points, while Frosinone's implied win probability has risen by 5.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Frosinone.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Genoa losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Genoa points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Genoa
Genoa's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Genoa win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Genoa win
Latest market chance 43.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
52.1% → 43.9%
−8.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.2% → 28.7%
+1.5 pts
Frosinone win
Latest market chance 27.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
20.7% → 27.4%
+6.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Genoa
Draw
Frosinone
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GenoaFrosinone
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
7th
3
Games Played
3
0.00
Points/Game
2.00
0.33
Goals/Game
2.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.8
Shots/Game
16.8
3.0
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Genoa at home (3 matches) vs Frosinone away (2 matches)
0.33
Points/Game
2.00
0.67
Goals/Game
2.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
0.50
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Genoa
Home form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Frosinone
Away form
D
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Genoa Wins
1
Draws
2
Frosinone Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Genoa1 – 1Frosinone
Frosinone2 – 1Genoa
Frosinone3 – 2Genoa
Genoa1 – 0Frosinone
Genoa0 – 0Frosinone
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Genoavs
Frosinone
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.10
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
6/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 42.7%→Latest 50.2%+7.5 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 45.8%→Latest 55.1%+9.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
7 of Genoa's 10 matches and 7 of Frosinone's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?