Lecce vs Bologna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Stadio Via del Mare
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
4.60
Draw
3.32
Away Win
1.91
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lecce edge recent form, Bologna edge defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bologna have recorded two away wins from their last five outings across seasons, while Lecce have secured two home victories alongside a draw in the same span. Lecce have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have only kept one clean sheet in that identical period. Lecce rate stronger on form, while Bologna rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Bologna won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 12 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Lecce's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 24-day comparison window, Lecce's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points, while Bologna's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Lecce
No current absences reported
Bologna
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Bologna
Bologna's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Bologna win as more likely than it did 24 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lecce win
Latest market chance 22.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.5% → 22.2%
−2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
29.3% → 28.3%
−1.0 pts
Bologna win
Latest market chance 49.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
46.2% → 49.5%
+3.3 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
19 snapshots
+3.5+1.750−1.75Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lecce
Draw
Bologna
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 24 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Lecce
Bologna
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
18th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
0.40
1.00
Goals/Game
0.60
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.20
8.4
Shots/Game
13.4
3.4
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Lecce at home (2 matches) vs Bologna away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.00
1.50
Goals/Game
0.00
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lecce
Home form
D
L
W
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Bologna
Away form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lecce Wins
0
Draws
2
Bologna Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
2026-04-122025-2026
Bologna2 – 0Lecce
2025-09-282025-2026
Lecce2 – 2Bologna
2025-02-092024-2025
Lecce0 – 0Bologna
2024-11-022024-2025
Bologna1 – 0Lecce
2024-02-112023-2024
Bologna4 – 0Lecce
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lecce
vs
Bologna
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
5/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
71.1%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
47.4%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
28.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
51.5%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 47.8%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 24 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.3%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 24 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Lecce's 10 matches and 5 of Bologna's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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