Napoli vs Frosinone Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.45
Draw
5.10
Away Win
6.50
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Napoli edge head-to-head, Frosinone edge recent form, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Frosinone slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Frosinone have enjoyed an impressive run away from home with two victories and three draws in their last five outings across seasons, while Napoli sit on a mixed record at this venue with three wins but also two defeats in the same period. Napoli have found the net in all five of their home matches recently, yet they have kept just three clean sheets during that identical span. Frosinone hold a slight advantage in form, while Napoli rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 14 April 2024, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Napoli's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while Frosinone's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Napoli
No current absences reported
Frosinone
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Napoli
Napoli's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Napoli win as less likely than it did 23 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Napoli win
Latest market chance 66.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
67.6% → 66.0%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.3% → 19.6%
+0.3 pts
Frosinone win
Latest market chance 14.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
13.1% → 14.4%
+1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Napoli
Draw
Frosinone
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NapoliFrosinone
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
6th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
2.00
1.40
Goals/Game
1.80
1.20
Conceded/Game
0.80
13.8
Shots/Game
16.8
4.2
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Napoli at home (2 matches) vs Frosinone away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Napoli
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Frosinone
Away form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Napoli Wins
4
Draws
1
Frosinone Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.6
Napoli2 – 2Frosinone
Frosinone1 – 3Napoli
Frosinone0 – 2Napoli
Napoli4 – 0Frosinone
Napoli4 – 0Frosinone
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Napolivs
Frosinone
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.30
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 63.3%+4.3 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 57.1%+5.5 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Napoli's 10 matches and 5 of Frosinone's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?