Sassuolo vs Milan Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
4.48
Draw
3.89
Away Win
1.78
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sassuolo edge attack and head-to-head, Milan edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sassuolo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sassuolo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Milan have secured two wins from their last five away fixtures across seasons, while Sassuolo boast an impressive four victories in just as many home outings during the same period. At home, Sassuolo have found the net in each of their last five matches but have kept just a single clean sheet within that identical sample. Milan rate stronger on form and defence, while Sassuolo rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Sassuolo won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 3 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Milan's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 24-day comparison window, Sassuolo's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Milan's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Milan yellow cards after 75'
12
Sassuolo points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Sassuolo
No current absences reported
Milan
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Milan
Milan's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Milan win as less likely than it did 24 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sassuolo win
Latest market chance 22.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
21.2% → 22.3%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 25.2%
+0.6 pts
Milan win
Latest market chance 52.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
54.2% → 52.6%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sassuolo
Draw
Milan
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 24 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SassuoloMilan
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
5th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
2.20
1.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.80
Conceded/Game
0.80
17.2
Shots/Game
12.8
7.0
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Sassuolo at home (2 matches) vs Milan away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.67
2.50
Goals/Game
1.67
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.33
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sassuolo
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Milan
Away form
L
W
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sassuolo Wins
2
Draws
2
Milan Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.0
Sassuolo2 – 0Milan
Milan2 – 2Sassuolo
Sassuolo3 – 3Milan
Milan1 – 0Sassuolo
Milan2 – 5Sassuolo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sassuolovs
Milan
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.4%→Latest 52.7%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 54.2%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Sassuolo's 10 matches and 5 of Milan's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?