Venezia vs Fiorentina Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.12
Draw
3.40
Away Win
2.39
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 4
Match Events ?
Venezia
Fiorentina
A. Adams (G. Busio) ⚽
22'
29'
⚽ F. Mastantuono (A. Jimenez)
30'
⚽ F. Mastantuono (Beto)
Joel Schingtienne 🟨
38'
66'
⚽ M. Pellegrino (N. Fagioli)
72'
🟨 Alieu Njie
Simon Sohm 🟨
73'
84'
⚽ F. Mastantuono
A. Hainaut (R. Haps) ⚽
86'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
11
Total Shots
19
4
Shots on Goal
10
2
Corner Kicks
4
10
Fouls
6
2
Yellow Cards
1
3
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Venezia (3-5-2)
F. Stankovic
J. Schingtienne
M. Moreno
R. Haps
A. Hainaut
K. Perez
G. Busio
S. Sohm
R. Sagrado
J. Yeboah
A. Adams
Fiorentina (4-2-3-1)
D. de Gea
A. Jimenez
R. Dragusin
L. Ranieri
Viery
C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
F. Mastantuono
A. Atta
A. Njie
Beto
Player Ratings ?
Venezia
Filip StankovićG8.5
Antoine HainautM7.7
Akor AdamsF7.3
Fiorentina
Franco MastantuonoM9.9
Mateo PellegrinoF7.7
Nicolò FagioliM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Venezia edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Fiorentina edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Fiorentina stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Venezia stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Venezia slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Venezia stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Fiorentina have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Venezia sit on two victories in their corresponding home sample over the same span. Venezia have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have managed just one clean sheet during that identical period. Fiorentina rate stronger on form, while Venezia rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Venezia won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 12 May 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Fiorentina's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Venezia's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points, while Fiorentina's implied win probability has risen by 5.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Venezia losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Fiorentina
Fiorentina's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Fiorentina win as more likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Venezia win
Latest market chance 31.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
35.6% → 31.1%
−4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.6% → 28.3%
−0.3 pts
Fiorentina win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
35.8% → 40.6%
+4.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Venezia
Draw
Fiorentina
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
VeneziaFiorentina
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
20th
3
Games Played
3
0.00
Points/Game
0.00
0.67
Goals/Game
0.33
2.33
Conceded/Game
3.00
14.0
Shots/Game
16.8
4.4
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Venezia at home (3 matches) vs Fiorentina away (2 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
1.50
0.67
Goals/Game
2.00
2.67
Conceded/Game
3.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Venezia
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Fiorentina
Away form
W
D
L
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Venezia Wins
2
Draws
1
Fiorentina Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.4
Venezia2 – 1Fiorentina
Fiorentina0 – 0Venezia
Fiorentina1 – 0Venezia
Venezia1 – 0Fiorentina
Venezia0 – 2Fiorentina
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Veneziavs
Fiorentina
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
0.60
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
4/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 53.4%+3.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 58.3%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
7 of Venezia's 10 matches and 7 of Fiorentina's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?