Avellino vs Palermo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.07
Draw
3.24
Away Win
2.08
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Avellino
Palermo
35'
🟨 Mattia Bani
Filippo Missori 🟨
56'
Walid Cheddira (Raffaele Russo) ⚽
60'
63'
⚽ Dennis Johnsen (Joel Pohjanpalo)
Michael Venturi 🟨
84'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
15
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Avellino (3-5-2)
T. Martinelli
A. Izzo
M. Venturi
P. Enrici
T. Cancellotti
M. Palumbo
M. Besaggio
L. Di Maggio
B. Moruzzi
L. Pandolfi
R. Russo
Palermo (3-4-2-1)
M. Fortin
T. Cassandro
M. Bani
F. Barba
E. Gyasi
J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
T. Augello
A. Palumbo
D. Vavassori
J. Pohjanpalo
Player Ratings ?
Avellino
W. CheddiraF7.6
P. EnriciD7.2
R. RussoF7.2
Palermo
D. JohnsenF8.2
F. BarbaD7.1
M. FortinG7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Avellino edge defence, Palermo edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palermo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Avellino have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Palermo have managed just a solitary win in their corresponding away sample. The hosts have found the net in each of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Palermo rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while Avellino rate stronger on defence. Palermo won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 5 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Avellino's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Avellino's implied win probability has fallen by 7.1 percentage points, while Palermo's implied win probability has risen by 8.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Palermo
Palermo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Palermo win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Avellino win
Latest market chance 24.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.3% → 24.2%
−7.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
30.6% → 29.2%
−1.4 pts
Palermo win
Latest market chance 46.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
38.2% → 46.7%
+8.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Avellino
Draw
Palermo
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AvellinoPalermo
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
1st
3
Games Played
3
2.00
Points/Game
3.00
1.67
Goals/Game
2.33
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
10.8
Shots/Game
15.6
4.2
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Avellino at home (3 matches) vs Palermo away (2 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
2.00
1.67
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
33%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Avellino
Home form
D
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Palermo
Away form
D
D
L
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Avellino Wins
0
Draws
1
Palermo Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
Palermo2 – 0Avellino
Avellino2 – 2Palermo
Palermo3 – 0Avellino
Avellino1 – 3Palermo
Palermo2 – 0Avellino
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Avellinovs
Palermo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.60
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.0%→Latest 47.8%+3.8 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 52.6%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
7 of Avellino's 10 matches and 7 of Palermo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?