Padova vs Ascoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Euganeo
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.24
Draw
3.30
Away Win
3.45
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Padova
Ascoli
N. Calabro 🟨
33'
Emanuele Zuelli 🟨
53'
59'
🟨 Giacomo De Pieri
Alessandro Dellavalle 🟨
59'
62'
🟨 Nicholas Rizzo
Nicolas Galazzi (Matteo Cocchi) ⚽
63'
Pietro Fusi 🟨
77'
Alessandro Capelli 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
35%
Ball Possession
65%
11
Total Shots
20
4
Shots on Goal
5
2
Corner Kicks
8
22
Fouls
12
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Padova (3-5-2)
A. Sorrentino
Alessandro Dellavalle
M. Lovato
C. Pastina
L. Carissoni
M. Pompetti
E. Zuelli
K. Varas
F. Di Mariano
K. Lasagna
L. Moro
Ascoli (4-2-3-1)
S. Vitale
T. Milanese
M. Curado
N. Rizzo
A. Guiébré
G. Corradini
S. Damiani
G. De Pieri
D. Bolsius
S. D'Uffizi
A. Chakir
Player Ratings ?
Padova
N. GalazziM8.1
A. SorrentinoG7.6
M. CocchiD7.5
Ascoli
S. DamianiM7.2
S. D'UffiziM7.1
M. CuradoD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Padova edge head-to-head, Ascoli edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ascoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Padova slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Padova have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Ascoli have managed just two wins in that same span of away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Ascoli rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Padova hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2019. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Padova
Padova's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Padova win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Padova win
Latest market chance 43.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
41.4% → 43.0%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.9% → 28.5%
−0.4 pts
Ascoli win
Latest market chance 28.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
29.7% → 28.5%
−1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Padova
Draw
Ascoli
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PadovaAscoli
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
4th
3
Games Played
3
1.33
Points/Game
2.33
1.00
Goals/Game
1.33
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
12.2
Shots/Game
15.4
4.0
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Padova at home (2 matches) vs Ascoli away (2 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Padova
Home form
L
W
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ascoli
Away form
L
D
W
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Padova Wins
2
Draws
1
Ascoli Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Padova1 – 2Ascoli
Ascoli2 – 3Padova
Ascoli0 – 1Padova
Padova1 – 1Ascoli
Padova0 – 2Ascoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Padovavs
Ascoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.60
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.2%→Latest 47.5%+3.3 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 52.8%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
7 of Padova's 10 matches and 7 of Ascoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?