AEK vs OFI Crete Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Allwyn Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.22
Draw
6.42
Away Win
10.97
Match Prediction
Data favours
AEK
AEK rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving AEK an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
AEK stronger
HomeAway
Attack
AEK stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AEK stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AEK stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
AEK have enjoyed an impressive unbeaten run at home across their last five outings with four victories and a single draw, while OFI Crete have struggled away from the ground in that same period, managing just one win and a draw from five matches. At this venue, AEK have found the net in every one of their last five fixtures but have also kept three clean sheets within that same recent sample. AEK rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. AEK won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 December 2025, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to OFI Crete's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 21-day comparison window, AEK's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points, while OFI Crete's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours AEK.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
AEK points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
AEK
No current absences reported
OFI Crete
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from AEK
AEK's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a AEK win as less likely than it did 21 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AEK win
Latest market chance 76.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
77.7% → 76.8%
−0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.2% → 15.3%
+0.1 pts
OFI Crete win
Latest market chance 7.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
7.1% → 7.9%
+0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
AEK
Draw
OFI Crete
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 21 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AEKOFI Crete
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
5th
6
Games Played
6
2.33
Points/Game
1.83
2.50
Goals/Game
1.67
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
17.2
Shots/Game
10.8
6.2
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
AEK at home (2 matches) vs OFI Crete away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.50
4.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
100%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AEK
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
OFI Crete
Away form
D
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AEK Wins
5
Draws
0
OFI Crete Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
AEK2 – 1OFI Crete
OFI Crete0 – 1AEK
OFI Crete1 – 2AEK
AEK3 – 0OFI Crete
AEK3 – 0OFI Crete
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AEKvs
OFI Crete
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.3%→Latest 62.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 44.3%→Latest 45.8%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of AEK's 10 matches and 4 of OFI Crete's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?