Mexico vs South Africa Head-to-Head — FIFA World Cup 2026
⚽ Group Stage, Match 1
Match Report
Match Events ?
9'J. Quinones (E. Lira)Mexico
17'T. Mokoena South Africa
23'B. Gutierrez Mexico
49'Y. Sithole South Africa
67'R. Jimenez (R. Alvarado)Mexico
74'N. Sibisi South Africa
84'T. Zwane South Africa
90'C. Montes Mexico
Match Statistics ?
Mexico
South Africa
61%
Possession
39%
4
Shots on Target
2
16
Total Shots
3
3
Corners
1
12
Fouls
11
1.41
xG
0.07
Player Ratings ?
Starting Lineups ?
Mexico · 4-1-4-1
1G
15D
3D
5D
23D
6M
25M
26M
8M
16M
9F
South Africa · 5-3-2
1G
20D
19D
21D
14D
6D
4M
13M
23M
15F
9F
Predictions
Match Prediction ?
Favoured: Mexico
Expected: Mexico by 1–2 goals
Confidence: High
Mexico 73%Draw 19%South Africa 8%
xG: 1.96Expected goalsxG: 0.49
Mexico vs South Africa looks like a Mexico-favoured matchup based on our pre-tournament model. Mexico has the stronger overall edge according to our model, with Mexico by 1–2 goals. This prediction should be used as general match context rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Win Probability (Market) ?
68%
Mexico to Win
Home: 68% Draw: 21% Away: 11%
Model Rating Edge ?
Clear Edge
Mexico stronger
Mexico: 1590 (#13) · South Africa: 1373 (#40)
H2H Record ?
2–1–1
Mexico leads
Avg 3.8 goals/game · 4 meetings
Mexico
South Africa
#1
Position ?
#4
3
Points ?
0
1W 0D 0L
Record ?
0W 0D 1L
2
Goals For ?
0
0
Goals Against ?
2
+2
Goal Diff
-2
#15
FIFA Rank ?
#60
3.0%
Win Prob ?
0.0%
W
Form ?
L
Head-to-Head History
Previous World Cup Meetings
11 Jun 2010FIFA World CupSouth Africa1–1Mexico
Last 4 Meetings (All Competitions)
11 Jun 2010World CupSouth Africa1–1Mexico
8 Jul 2005Gold CupSouth Africa2–1NMexico
7 Jun 2000USA CupMexico4–2NSouth Africa
6 Oct 1993FriendlyMexico4–0NSouth Africa
💡 Betting Angles
Key Angles for this Match
High-scoring H2H history — these two average 3.8 goals across their last 4 meetings.
Clear model favourite: Mexico at 73% win probability.